A Handful of Dust

Kerry On A Roll

John Kerry scored another big win tonight in the New Hampshire primary. Although the totals aren't final as I write this, it looks like he will finish ahead of second place Howard Dean by 10-15 points. Keep in mind, 3 weeks ago Kerry was down more than 20 points in the polls. That's an amazing comeback for Kerry. The prime motivator that seems to be drawing people toward the Kerry campaign is that he seems like the candidate who will be most able to beat George Bush in November. I admit, I'm one of those people who is attracted to Kerry for exactly that reason, among others. Also, I agree with Kerry's stand on most of the issues, so he gets my full support. I would like to see a Kerry/Clark or Kerry/Edwards ticket take on Bush this fall.

Interestingly, I am now watching Joe Lieberman on CNN giving his "after" speech. He is claiming that there is a three way tie for third place, and patting himself on the back. Too bad the numbers don't bear that out. According to the latest numbers...

Kerry 38
Dean 26
Clark 13
Edwards 12
Lieberman 9
Kucinich 2
Sharpton 1

Now, maybe Joe knows something that the rest of us don't, but how the hell do you call that a three way tie for third? It looks like fifth place to me, but maybe I'm crazy.

John Kerry

So What Happens Now?

After the political earthquake in Iowa this week, the whole democratic party is in an uproar. John Kerry has surged ahead of Howard Dean and Wes Clark in New Hampshire, as well as in the national tracking polls. John Edwards is also seeing a significant uptick in his polling numbers, as well as in his campaign funds.

I must admit, I was quite surprised (and very pleased) that Kerry won in Iowa. I think he's the most electable of the candidates, and I agree with his positions on most issues. He needs to choose a running mate from the south (Clark? Edwards?) if he gets the nomination, but if he does that, I think he has a real shot at beating Bush.

That said, I was wrong about Dean winning the Iowa caucus, but I was right that Gephardt would drop out after he lost. Now, I think that Kerry will win in New Hampshire next week, but Dean Will NOT drop out. he has more than $40 million in his campaign coffers, so he can go quite a long way on that kind of money. However, he's going to have to win something on Feb. 3 to remain a viable candidate. the same thing goes for Clark and Edwards.

There is concern among some of my friends that the sudden change in front-runner from Dean to Kerry will mean the Dems have to beat up on each other even more, and that whoever wins the nomination will be too badly bruised to be effective. I disagree. I think a certain amount of challenge coming from the others makes for a stronger candidate, not a weaker one. If Al Gore had seen more serious competition in the 2000 primary season, he would have been far more effective against George Bush. There is much that can be learned by being constantly challenged. you can either rise to the occasion, or fold your tent and go home.

Countdown to Iowa

Tomorrow is the big day for the Dems contending for the nomination, and it's a very tight race now. All of the latest polls show that it's a statistical dead heat heat between Howard Dean, Dick Gephardt, John Kerry and John Edwards. That would seem to indicate that any of them could win Iowa, but it would still be a major upset if either Kerry or Edwards carried the day. My reasoning is this: polls don't really mean as much in Iowa, because the very nature of of a caucus vs. a primary, and because Kerry and Edwards have only moved into contention in Iowa over the last week or so. Gephardt and Dean have been the two leaders for months, so no one would be surprised if one of them won.

My thoughts are that Dean will probably win the caucus, but who really knows. Caucuses are so bizarre that anything could happen. At any rate, if Gephardt doesn't win, he's effectively finished as a candidate. He's not polling well in New Hampshire, and he hardly has any money. Of course, even if he wins, I still don't think he can get the nomination. He a solidly qualified person, but he lacks charisma. It's hard to raise money and get votes if people don't pay attention to you.

I believe that in a few weeks, the field will have narrowed to Dean, Clark and possibly Kerry. Edwards is gathering steam, but it may be too late for him, unless he makes really strong showings in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. It looks like he'll come in fourth or fifth in N.H., and that's not good enough.

Tomorrow should be an interesting day. I doubt that any of these guys will be getting much sleep tonight. Good luck to all of them.

Unemployment is Down...Or Is It?

The federal government reported that the unemployment rate fell to 5.7% for December. Sounds like good news, doesn't it? The problem is, these numbers are always somewhat deceptive because they don't include the 300,000 people who simply gave up looking for work last month. The government just doesn't bother to count those people.

But wait, there's more. Another key indication of the national employment situation is the measure of how many jobs were either created or lost in a given month. Economists had predicted that there would be about 130,00 to 150,000 jobs created in December. The actual number turns out to be 1,000. That's right, a mere 1,000 jobs in the entire country were created last month.

Of course, this doesn't stop George Bush from trumpeting his "economic recovery", as jobless as it may be. Hopefully, the Dems will begin continue beating him over the head with these numbers and pointing out the fact that unless there are some radical changes, Bush will be the first president since Hoover to actually have a net loss of jobs during his tenure, a very sad record indeed.

Clark Surges in Polls, Closes on Dean

A new poll from CNN and Gallup, conducted over the past several days, indicates that retired General Wes Clark has made significant leap forward, closing the gap on front runner Howard Dean. Dean has been at least 10 points ahead of any of the other Dems in the race for the past several months, and has received two high profile endorsement from other popular Democrats, Al Gore and Bill Bradley.

Compared to a poll taken by the same group a month ago, Clark has surged forward 8 points since then. Here are the results from the December poll (right) and the January poll (left). This poll is available at cnn.com.

Keep in mind that the error of margin for this poll is 5%, meaning that Dean and Clark are now in dead heat. While this is only one poll, it is very interesting because it shows several things. First, that Clark is gaining momentum, likely at the expense of Lieberman and Dean. It also shows that Kerry is may have finally corrected the course of his badly flagging campaign, as he has also picked up some speed.

I think the most likely reason for Clark's jump in the polls is that many Democrats still fear that Dean can't beat George Bush, and a re therefore examining other candidates (Clark, and to a lesser degree, John Kerry) who they think will have a better chance of actually winning. There's an awful lot of anger toward George Bush among Democrats, and that is one of the primary reason that Dean has been so successful thus far. He has been very good at articulating that rage. However, Dean's embodiment of the Democratic rage is meaningless if he doesn't have a real shot at winning.

It should be interesting to see if other polls find the same results. Personally, I have not yet made a firm decision about which candidate I support, as I have mentioned here before. I have given serious consideration to Dean, Gephardt, Clark (I even signed a petition to get him to enter the race, and donated money to all of these guys). I could be perfectly happy with any of these as the nominee, as I think they are all well qualified and represent my ideals, to varying degrees. The one candidate I simply do not like is Joe Lieberman. If he were to be the nominee, I might just stay home on election day. I think he is a weasel, he's too conservative for my tastes, and I think he's petulant.

Bradley Endorses Dean

As you probably already know, Bill Bradley officially endorsed Howard Dean yesterday. It's another boost for Dean, who recently received the endorsement of Al Gore, just a few weeks ago. It appears that some of the Democratic establishment is attempting to rally around one candidate before these guys do too much damage to each other for any of them to be electable in November. If you want evidence of the kind of brutal attacks I am talking about, you need only take a look at last Sunday's debate in Iowa. The other candidates went after Howard Dean repeatedly, trying to slow down the Dean campaign, which has been the most successful of any so far. Dean has raised the most money money and his poll Numbers make him the clear front runner so far.

As far as Bill Bradley is concerned, he is a former senator from New Jersey, and ran for President in 2000. He was beaten by Al Gore in the primaries. Politically, Bradley is somewhat more liberal than Al Gore, which makes his endorsement of Howard Dean logical, since they are ideologically quite similar.

All said, it is still quite unusual for two prominent Democrats to make such high profile endorsements this early in the race. It seems clear that they are fixing their eyes on the prize in November, for which I applaud them. If there is less fighting among Democrats now, that means more resources can be devoted to the ultimate goal, defeating George Bush. However, fears that Dean is not electable continue to haunt his campaign, as you can see from my post above.

Howard Dean to Receive New Endorsement

Howard Dean, the current Democratic front runner, is expected to receive another high profile endorsement, possibly as early as Tuesday. This endorsement comes from Bill Bradley. For those who may not be very familiar with Bradley, he is a Rhodes Scholar and former senator from New Jersey. Bradley ran for president in 2000, but was defeated by Al Gore in the primaries. Bill Bradley is an extremely well regarded figure among Dems and Republicans alike, and is considered to be an honest, thoughtful person. Bradley was also a professional basketball player for the New York Knicks.

This would be Howard Dean's second high profile endorsement, the first coming a few weeks ago from Al Gore, the man who beat Bill Bradley in 2000. This endorsement comes on the heels of the brutal assault that Dean received from the other Democratic candidates in Sunday's debate.

Mars!!

Well, I'll be damned. NASA has landed a vehicle on Mars. This happened Saturday evening after years of effort by the brilliant men and women at NASA, and the Mars rover performed exactly as they had hoped. That is one mioghty achievement by these fine people, and they should be dancing all over NASA headquarters for quite some time. These are the kinds of accomplishments that make me so proud to be an American that I could just about burst. hats off to these people, they did one hell of a job, and they have made us all very, very proud.
Just think of it. Something made by human hands is actually sitting on an alien planet, taking pictures and making all kinds of scientific measurements so that we puny humans can expand our knowledge beyond that which is right in front of us. I know there are some people out there who think this kind of exploration is a waste of money, but I couldn't disagree more.

If you take a look around your home right now (or office, or whatever), you can see some of the practical results of space flights and research. In fact, you're using some of that technology now. And when you watch the weather before you go to work. And when you talk on your cellphone. Or when you use a ball point pen. I could go on with this for hours, but the most important reason for us to spend money on this is because we can learn things. We can learn about ourselves, wher we came from, how we fit into this marvelous, frightening universe and possibly become something bigger than we are. We have a responsiobility to strive to be more than we are, to expand ourselves. That's one of the great joys of living. Who knows, one day we may even meet some other race and learn that we are not alone in vastness, and that God has much bigger plans for us than living within our shells like turtles. There are wonders beyond imagining ouside this beautiful blue planet, and I can't wait to learn more.

Well done, NASA!!

Homo erotic Crap on MTV

I just happened across a show I'd never seen before on MTV called Wildboyz. I don't normally spend a lot of time (read: none) watching MTV, but I was working on my computer and just didn't bother to change the channel when this show came on.